QUALITATIVE MODELLING AND OPTIMISATION OF COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

conference paper

English

The basic aspect of nearly all decision Common sense indicates that high risks are caused by vagueness of studied problems and by ignorance of decision makers. Risks and an accuracy of the related predictions and their probabilities are closely related. Analysis of vague and/or complex systems in a realistic information poor environment must necessarily be based on inconsistent and sparse knowledge. A theory of qualitative modelling offers a flexible tool capable of dealing with very vague knowledge items. It can be therefore used to incorporate such vague knowledge items as trends into a framework of traditional formal tools. Qualitative models are based on three values only, namely positive, zero and negative. The qualitative models can be used to generate all possible scenarios. The complete list of scenarios guarantees that any search based on it is complete. No scenario can be overlooked. All possible time transitions among the complete set of scenarios can be easily generated. A case study presents a semi realistic multidimensional problem. It integrates equation based and inequality knowledge items to increase the reliability of the prediction. The set of generated scenarios is presented in details.

qualitative modeling, qualitative triplets, environmental system

KUČEROVÁ, V., DOHNAL, M.

1. 1. 2002

Nakladatelství a vydavatelství litomyšlského semináře

Praha

80-902168-8-9

Environmental Economics, Policy and International Environmental Relations: Focus on Visegrad Group Countries. 4th seminar of postgraduate students, young scientists and researchers

152-163

12