Publication detail

To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic

KARAS, M. REŽŇÁKOVÁ, M.

Original Title

To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic

Type

conference paper

Language

English

Original Abstract

According to some authors, bankruptcy models are less accurate if used in an environment different from the one for which they were designed. This is due to the higher heterogeneity of the data. The accuracy of the prediction model may be improved by reducing this heterogeneity. An alternative solution to the problem of the limited transferability (e.g. robustness) of a model may be to identify the environmental factors that affect the models prediction accuracy and incorporate them into it. This paper presents research of the prediction accuracy of a bankruptcy model in four countries and the correlation found between the development of selected macroeconomic indicators in these countries. It proved possible in this way to identify those macroeconomic factors that show similar correlation patterns between given environments as investigated by the accuracy of the bankruptcy model. These factors include, first and foremost, the performance of the economy, inflation and unemployment. The incorporation into the model of such factors is very likely to increase model robustness.

Keywords

Bankruptcy prediction; model robustness.

Authors

KARAS, M.; REŽŇÁKOVÁ, M.

RIV year

2014

Released

27. 12. 2014

Publisher

Elsevier

ISBN

1877-0428

Periodical

Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences

Year of study

156

Number

C

State

Kingdom of the Netherlands

Pages from

564

Pages to

568

Pages count

5

URL

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042814060613

Full text in the Digital Library

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/70149

BibTex

@inproceedings{BUT111308,
  author="Michal {Karas} and Mária {Režňáková}",
  title="To what degree is the accuracy of a bankruptcy prediction model affected by the environment? The case of the Baltic States and the Czech Republic",
  booktitle="Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences",
  year="2014",
  journal="Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences",
  volume="156",
  number="C",
  pages="564--568",
  publisher="Elsevier",
  doi="10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.241",
  issn="1877-0428",
  url="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042814060613"
}