Detail publikace

STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE: INTERDAY VARIATION FOR GIVEN TIME AND DAY OF WEEK

MIKOLÁŠEK, I.

Originální název

STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE: INTERDAY VARIATION FOR GIVEN TIME AND DAY OF WEEK

Typ

článek v časopise ve Web of Science, Jimp

Jazyk

angličtina

Originální abstrakt

Traffic demand prediction is one of the major elements of traffic planning and modelling. Traffic surveys routinely estimate the profile of traffic demand on a certain road section, showing the expected evolution of the demand over a day or week. However, the actual demand fluctuates around this value on day-to-day basis and thus can exceed otherwise sufficient capacity and consequently cause congestion due to the capacity drop. This type of traffic demand variability has not yet been properly studied although it can play significant role in traffic modelling and engineering. The relevance of this variability is further increasing with the growing popularity of stochastic traffic models. This paper presents results of a statistical analysis of the demand variability in five-minute aggregation intervals. Normal, lognormal and gamma distributions all show reasonably well fit to the data for individual intervals and often do not differ on statistically significant level. Based on the count of the best fits, the lognormal distribution seems to be most suitable, while the gamma distribution is the most universal and with generally acceptable fit. There appears to be a pattern where certain distributions have better fit in different times of the day and week. The regularity and magnitude of demand probably both play a role in this, as well as the aggregation interval. Two simple models for modelling the variability are proposed for practical applications when there is not enough data to perform similar analysis.

Klíčová slova

Random traffic demand; Probability distribution; Traffic model; Goodness-of-fit

Autoři

MIKOLÁŠEK, I.

Vydáno

31. 12. 2022

Nakladatel

CZECH TECHNICAL UNIV PRAGUE, FAC CIVIL ENGINEERING

Místo

PRAGUE 6

ISSN

1805-2576

Periodikum

The Civil Engineering Journal

Ročník

31

Číslo

4

Stát

Česká republika

Strany od

636

Strany do

646

Strany počet

11

URL

https://www.vut.cz/uk/podpora-publikovani/identifikatory/orcid/registrace

BibTex

@article{BUT182405,
  author="Igor {Mikolášek}",
  title="STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE: INTERDAY VARIATION FOR GIVEN TIME AND DAY OF WEEK",
  journal="The Civil Engineering Journal",
  year="2022",
  volume="31",
  number="4",
  pages="636--646",
  doi="10.14311/CEJ.2022.04.0048",
  issn="1805-2576",
  url="https://www.vut.cz/uk/podpora-publikovani/identifikatory/orcid/registrace"
}