Publication detail

An evaluation of total project risk based on fuzzy logic

DOSKOČIL, R.

Original Title

An evaluation of total project risk based on fuzzy logic

Type

journal article in Scopus

Language

English

Original Abstract

The article deals with the use of fuzzy logic as a support of evaluation of total project risk. A brief description of actual project risk management, fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic and the process of calculation is given. The major goal of this paper is to present am new expert decision-making fuzzy model for evaluating total project risk. This fuzzy model based on RIPRAN method. RIPRAN (RIsk PRoject ANalysis) method is an empirical method for the analysis of project risks. The Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in MATLAB software was used to create the decision-making fuzzy model. The advantage of the fuzzy model is the ability to transform the input variables The Number of Sub-Risks (NSR) and The Total Value of Sub-Risks (TVSR) to linguistic variables, as well as linguistic evaluation of the Total Value of Project Risk (TVPR) – output variable. With this approach it is possible to simulate the risk value and uncertainty that are always associated with real projects. The scheme of the model, rule block, attributes and their membership functions are mentioned in a case study. The use of fuzzy logic is a particular advantage in decision-making processes where description by algorithms is extremely difficult and criteria are multiplied.

Keywords

project management, risk analysis, soft computing, fuzzy set, fuzzy logic, decision-making

Authors

DOSKOČIL, R.

Released

1. 1. 2016

Publisher

Vilnius Gediminas Technical University

Location

Vilnius, Lithuania

ISBN

1648-0627

Periodical

Business: Theory and Practice

Year of study

17

Number

1

State

Republic of Lithuania

Pages from

23

Pages to

31

Pages count

9

URL

https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/BTP/article/view/8201

Full text in the Digital Library

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/201024

BibTex

@article{BUT119983,
  author="Radek {Doskočil}",
  title="An evaluation of total project risk based on fuzzy logic",
  journal="Business: Theory and Practice",
  year="2016",
  volume="17",
  number="1",
  pages="23--31",
  doi="10.3846/btp.2016.534",
  issn="1648-0627",
  url="https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/BTP/article/view/8201"
}