Numerical Models for Wind Power Plant Power Prediction

conference paper

English

The paper deals with prediction of generated power from wind power plants. At the beginning there are mentioned basic purposes of prediction and simulation. Predicting options and their difficulties are discussed together with prediction advance and prediction step requirements. Various ways of wind supply prediction can bring different results. Difficulty and expected effect on prediction accuracy is estimated as well. In second part there are made basic simulation models, which are subsequently optimized. There were used Autoregressive model, Moving Average model and statistical Markov switching process. Programmed models are tested on real data from 2 MW Vestas wind turbine. Achieved results are analysed by sta-tistical methods and consequently evaluated.

wind power prediction, wind power plants simulation, numerical prediction methods, Autoregressive model, Markov chain, Moving average model

BARTOŠÍK, T.; RADIL, L.; MASTNÝ, P.

2013

20. 5. 2013

VSB – Technical University of Ostrava

Ostrava

978-80-248-2988-3

Proceedings of the 14th International Scientific Conference Electric Power Engineering 2013

759

762

4